Tropical Storm Ian formed from Tropical Depression Nine in the southeastern Caribbean Friday night, and forecasters expect it to reach Florida as a major hurricane by the middle of next week.
According to the latest forecast models, South Florida is in the cone of a Category 3 hurricane.
"It looks like it's going to be a big storm," said Will Redmayne, a spokesman for the National Weather Service in Miami.
Warm water in the Caribbean and Gulf will transform the storm into a hurricane early Monday. Heavy rains may begin in South Florida on Monday, which will cause some flash and urban flooding.
Warm waters in the Caribbean and Gulf will turn the storm into a hurricane early Monday. According to the latest advice, heavy rains could begin in South Florida on Monday, with limited flash and risk of urban flooding.
The National Weather Service in Miami said at 5 p.m. "The main impact, if any, of the storm will not begin until Monday night, and may begin as early as Tuesday." Update
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 24 counties on Friday, from South Florida, Monroe County, Brevard County to the north and several counties on the West Coast. The emergency order states that the Florida National Guard will be activated and placed on standby to respond as needed.
"Current forecasts show a hurricane that could occasionally lead to a hurricane as it approaches Florida," Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said Friday afternoon.
South Floridians are encouraged to be active this weekend.
"It's time to start these hurricanes, everybody know their stuff, everything in the water, know where your insurance papers are," Garcia said. Focus on what is happening with the forecast. Maybe over the weekend and early next week that should be considered, things are going to move.
The National Weather Service in Miami wrote in a briefing Friday morning that "all tropical hazards are in play" in South Florida, including damaging winds, hurricanes, flooding and tornadoes.
"There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the forecast for the track in the 4-5 day time frame," said National Hurricane Center expert Philip Papin.
Tropical Storm Hermione made landfall at 5 p.m. Friday. The center's latest advice says a tropical depression is about ten hundred miles east of the African coast. Hermione is moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph and maximum gusts of 40 mph.
Hermine may strengthen through Saturday, but weakening is expected Sunday and early next week, around 5 p.m. Update said. The current path does not show that it has reached the ground.
In an 11 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said Ian was moving west-northwest at 12 mph. It was 385 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 680 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Experts predict that it will turn west-northwest and then northwest on the weekend and Monday before or next day.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 mph. The Center will have "significant strength" on Sunday and Monday at 11 pm. Update said.
Storm watches have been issued until 5 p.m. For the Cayman Islands, Jamaica is under tropical storm control. The storm will pass south of Jamaica Saturday night and Sunday and move toward the Cayman Islands Sunday night and Monday morning.
A five-day path kept it northward in Cuba until Tuesday, then stalled off the southwest coast of Florida with 110 mph winds and 130 mph gusts Wednesday morning.
Ian will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next few days, while reducing the chance of heavy rain, flash floods and landslides in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.
The Florida Department of Emergency Management issued a press release Friday morning saying the state is preparing for possible landfall and urging Floridians to prepare their homes for the storm.
“It is essential that Floridians are alert and prepared – it only takes one storm to cause costly or irreversible damage to your home or business,” FDM director Kevin Guthrie said in the release.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona has weakened to Category 2 with winds of up to 105 mph as of 11 a.m. Friday Advice.
According to the National Hurricane Center's advisory, the storm was located 140 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving north at 46 mph.
Hurricane conditions began in Canada late Friday night, as the center of the storm approached Nova Scotia. Storm warnings have been issued for many parts of Canada until 8 p.m. Friday, including parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Fiona is the first major hurricane of the 2022 season, meaning it is a Category 3 and above.
Forecasters are tracking another system in the Atlantic. A large area of low pressure in the Atlantic has a 30% chance over the next five days, although Ian is at greatest risk.
"It's definitely going to be a system going into the southeastern Caribbean," said Eric Blake, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Gaston is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days by 11pm. Friday Advice. The storm is expected to move over the Azores, about 1,000 miles off the coast of Portugal, today.
The storm will end on November 30. The storm named after Ian will be Julia.
